The United States and Iran are still talking. The ceasefire that began on April 8 is holding, barely, despite steady military exchanges that neither side has allowed to derail mediation efforts led by Pakistan, Qatar, and others. American naval and air forces remain within striking distance of Iran. The Iranian regime has kept its forces on high alert and spent the ceasefire repairing damage inflicted by the US and Israel.
The first goal on what would be a long and perhaps unreachable road to a wider deal is straightforward: extend the ceasefire and agree on a memorandum of understanding that sets the agenda for more talks. That is not the same as a deal. It is barely the promise of a conversation.
Netanyahu just made Trump’s job harder
Israel’s declaration that its bombers would return to Beirut has narrowed Donald Trump’s options even further. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu will not worry if his renewed offensive in Lebanon makes an American deal with Iran harder to get. He did not want the ceasefire with the Tehran regime in the first place. As far as he is concerned, any deal between America and Iran is a bad deal.
The Iranians continue to support Hezbollah, their ally and proxy in Lebanon. They have indicated that a wider deal with the US will have to include an end to the Israeli offensive. President Trump seems, for now, to be trying to restrain Israel. How long that lasts is anyone’s guess.
The Strait of Hormuz is still closed
Iran closed the Strait of Hormuz after it was attacked by the US and Israel on February 28. Only a trickle of ships is getting through what had been a vital and busy waterway. Saudi Arabia is piping some oil to its Red Sea ports. The United Arab Emirates has a pipeline to terminals on its small patch of coast facing the Gulf of Oman, beyond the Strait. But the rest of the world has still lost around 20% of its usual supply of oil and gas.
Keeping the Strait closed spells disaster for much of the world economy. The US no longer depends on Gulf oil, but petrol prices in America are still set by the global oil market. Trump went to war assuming an easy victory. He and Netanyahu fatally underestimated the degree to which the Islamic regime was prepared to resist and ride out their attacks.
Iran wants a price, and Trump cannot pay it without looking weak
The Iranian regime will require a price to reopen the Strait, perhaps in the form of sanctions relief or unfrozen assets. That appears to be a prerequisite for serious negotiations. Trump needs to get the Strait reopened. The war against Iran is deeply unpopular in the US, and re-escalating it will turn even more Americans against it.
Trump’s problem is that the concessions Iran will require are opposed by hawks in his own Republican Party and by his own desire to parade a victory. The US president is deeply allergic to any adverse comparison between any deal he makes with Iran and the nuclear deal made under Barack Obama in 2015. Trump condemned it and in his first term pulled the US out.
Iran’s rulers believe with some justification that they are fighting for the existence of their regime. More strikes from the US, with or without Israel, are not going to budge them on that.
The Gulf states want this over
The wealthy Arab oil states of the Gulf have suffered long-term economic damage and do not want to suffer any more. Their model for business depends on the Gulf being a stable hub for the global economy and safe for foreign investment. The war has inflicted a severe blow, and restoring their aura of stability will take years.
Qatar is a full mediating partner, along with Pakistan, in the diplomatic attempt to restart talks. The United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia have responded to Iran from different angles. The Emiratis have doubled down on their strategic relationship with the Israelis, who deployed the Iron Dome missile defense system to the UAE, along with Israel Defense Forces soldiers to operate it.
The Saudis have attacked Iran in retaliation for Iranian attacks. But senior Saudi sources say they made it clear to Tehran that they were acting independently, not as part of the US-Israel coalition.
The miscalculation that changed everything
When Donald Trump and Benjamin Netanyahu went to war with Iran, both men said their countries’ considerable air power would be enough to remove the Islamic regime in Tehran. They misunderstood the nature of a regime that has survived for almost half a century despite severe tests imposed by war, sanctions, and isolation.
Now the US and Israel are living with the consequences, and so is the rest of the world. Trump is under pressure from the polls and from Gulf allies to find a way out. Iran, having absorbed the strike and held the line, is in no rush to make it easy for him. The question is whether Trump can secure the concessions he needs to reopen the Strait without handing his critics the comparison to Obama he has spent years trying to avoid.
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