There are elections called voluntarily and there are elections called because the coalition arithmetic has reached the specific point where going to the voters is preferable to maintaining the current arrangement, and Israel’s Knesset voted Friday to dissolve itself and set national elections for October 27, a decision made while the country is participating in an active US military campaign against Iran and whose prime minister is trailing in every major poll.
The Knesset passed a series of controversial bills this week, including two aimed at blocking the drafting of ultra-Orthodox men for compulsory military service, per HuffPost’s live updates today. These bills were the price Netanyahu paid to maintain his coalition with ultra-Orthodox parties, who have consistently refused to serve in the military while receiving government subsidies for religious study. The deal allowed Netanyahu to survive the week politically. The Knesset then voted to dissolve itself, ending that survival’s runway and scheduling an election for October.
Netanyahu’s bloc is currently trailing in polls, per HuffPost, which is the situation that produces the specific strategic calculation around whether to go to voters now or later, and which has produced the decision to go to voters in October, which is three months from now, during which time the following will be happening: the Iran war and its aftermath, the World Cup final between Argentina and Spain (Sunday), the US midterm elections in November, the potential collapse of whatever Iran nuclear deal is or is not being negotiated, and the consequences of the ultra-Orthodox draft exemption bills that Netanyahu’s coalition required to survive long enough to call an election.
The ultra-Orthodox draft exemption is a matter of acute sensitivity in Israel because the IDF is engaged in active combat operations, its soldiers are dying, and approximately 13 percent of the Israeli Jewish population is legally exempted from serving alongside them for reasons relating to their religious status. The bills blocking the draft requirement for this population passed this week. The Knesset then dissolved. Netanyahu will campaign on a record that includes the Gaza war, the Iran war, and legislation protecting people who will not serve in the wars.
The election is October 27. Netanyahu is trailing. The wars are ongoing.
When a prime minister passes draft exemption bills to survive his coalition and then dissolves parliament three months before the election, what exactly is the strategy?
Sources
HuffPost: Trump Revives Old Election Interference Claims, Slams Networks In Primetime Address: Live Updates
HuffPost: Netanyahu’s Government Survives Vote To Dissolve Israeli Parliament
