Trump was hours from launching what Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth confirmed would have been “the biggest attacks since World War II” on Saturday night. Trump called them off. Iran and the US are now set to begin negotiations through mediators in Oman on Monday. Oil fell 5% to approximately $84 a barrel on the news. Iran’s Foreign Ministry spokesperson Esmaeil Baqaei vowed the same morning that the Strait of Hormuz “will in no way return to the status it was before February 28th.” Former Pentagon official Brent Sadler told Fox News on Monday that more strikes remain “likely” regardless of the talks. The military is “locked and loaded,” per Hegseth. All of this is happening before noon.
The diplomatic opening is proceeding through Oman as the intermediary, which is the country that has historically served as a back-channel between the US and Iran and which is doing so again. Iranian officials are insisting they are not in direct talks with the United States, which is a distinction that matters internally to the Iranian government and which the negotiations are designed to navigate by having Oman in between. Trump claims a deal to reopen the Strait and denuclearize Iran is “imminent,” which is the word he used. The Strait of Hormuz currently sees only a handful of commercial vessels per day, down from roughly 21 million barrels of oil daily before the war. Every day it remains closed costs the global economy money that both sides can document and nobody wants to be blamed for.
Chevron CEO Mike Wirth warned this weekend of “very real” dangers to global oil supplies, noting that “not only the Strait of Hormuz, but the Red Sea and the Black Sea have risks and uncertainties,” which means the three most consequential maritime chokepoints in global energy trade are simultaneously contested, which is the kind of sentence that produces sharp movements in oil futures on a Monday morning.
The ceasefire signed at Versailles on June 17 lasted 21 days. The resumed conflict lasted another six weeks before Trump called off the WWII-scale strikes on Saturday night. Iran vows the Strait stays changed. Oman is carrying messages between the parties.
When Trump calls off the biggest strikes since World War II hours before they launch and Iran says the Strait will never return to normal, what exactly are the negotiators discussing?
Sources
Fox News Live: Iran war, Trump strike pause, August 3
Raw Story: Trump hypes up planned Iran attack — then cancels it citing last-minute deal
HuffPost: Trump Says Gulf Leaders’ Input Weighed Heavily In Decision To Hold Off On Ordering New Iran Strikes
HuffPost: Trump Says Mideast Allies Have Reached Outlines Of Deal To End Iran War, Says U.S. To Stop New Strikes
