There are ceasefires and there is what is happening right now, which is three consecutive nights without US strikes, oil falling more than 7 percent on diplomacy hopes, Iranian officials rejecting peace talks while claiming they still control the Strait of Hormuz by turning back five ships and letting a sixth have an “accident,” and Benjamin Netanyahu in the air to Washington for face-to-face talks with Trump, none of which is being described as a ceasefire, possibly because the last ceasefire lasted 21 days.
Trump has paused US strikes for three consecutive nights, per the Fox News live blog updated at 12:34 p.m. EDT today, which is the longest pause in the resumed conflict since the original ceasefire collapsed. The pause has not been given a name. It has not been described as a truce. It has been accompanied by Trump warning on Fox News this morning that time is running out for Iran before he says “go” on “strong military action,” which is the diplomatic message attached to the pause by the person who ordered the pause. Iran’s response was to reject peace talks, claim sole control of the Strait, and physically turn back five commercial vessels, suggesting the pause is being received as a tactical break rather than a gesture of goodwill.
Netanyahu departed for Washington today for direct talks with Trump, per the Fox News live blog, on the heels of what Israeli officials describe as a disagreement about the pace and scope of the Iran operation. Israel wants a more aggressive campaign targeting Iran’s nuclear infrastructure. Trump, who told Axios last week he was considering “a massive attack. Bigger than ever before,” has paused for three nights. Netanyahu is now in the air heading to explain, or hear, the difference.
Oil fell more than 7 percent to around $83 a barrel, down from above $100 last week, as markets priced in diplomacy. The Strait of Hormuz, through which approximately 20 percent of globally traded oil moves, is still described by Iran as under its control. CENTCOM says it has assisted the transit of approximately 900 commercial vessels since operations began. Both are true. The price is down 7 percent on hope that both being true will resolve in favor of the 900 vessels rather than the five turned back.
The ceasefire that ended on June 7 was described as a ceasefire. This is a pause with a warning attached.
When the pause comes with a warning about strong military action, Iran turns back ships anyway, Netanyahu is in the air, and oil falls 7% on hope, what exactly is the pause?
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