There are news organizations that protect their audience from information the audience would prefer not to have. Breitbart, this week, was not one of them.
The headline on their own business digest: “Economic Gloom Is Spreading to Trump’s Voters.” The subhead is not cheerful either. The numbers come from the Economist/YouGov poll. In mid-February, 58 percent of registered Republicans said the economy was getting better and 18 percent said it was getting worse, a net positive of 40 points. By mid-May, the net positive had fallen to 2. Among self-described conservatives: from 29 points positive to 2. Among Trump voters specifically, the share saying things are getting worse went from 19 percent to 30 percent in three months. The University of Michigan found the same pattern. Gallup found the same pattern. Breitbart ran all of it anyway.
The Iran war is the proximate cause. The Strait of Hormuz closure cost supply chains and pushed gas above $4. The deal signed at Versailles last night will help; prices are already falling. But Breitbart’s piece notes the gloom was building before the war started, which means the war accelerated a trend that was already moving in the wrong direction.
The notable detail is how the MAGA-identified cohort is moving. They are not collapsing into “things are getting worse.” They are migrating from “things are getting better” to “things are about the same,” which sounds like stability but is not. Enthusiasm requires belief that things are improving. “About the same” is the economic sentiment of someone who has stopped expecting improvement. It is the opposite of a midterm turnout engine.
November requires enthusiasm. Enthusiasm requires optimism. “About the same” does not fill buses to polling stations.
When the outlet that spent 18 months celebrating the MAGA economy is the one reporting that the base has stopped believing in it, what exactly has the base figured out?
Sources
Breitbart Business Digest: Economic gloom spreading to Trump’s voters
