The Iran war started on February 28 with Trump announcing “major combat operations” targeting a government the administration described as the world’s leading state sponsor of terrorism and a nuclear threat requiring elimination. It may end with a deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Between those two objectives there is a substantial distance, and nobody announced the moment when one replaced the other.
Trump told reporters this week that a Strait of Hormuz deal could come “very soon,” with Oman serving as mediator between Washington and Tehran. Per HuffPost’s confirmed reporting, Israel and the US “originally cited goals including toppling Tehran’s government and ending its nuclear program, but the war has devolved into a fight over the strait as Iran’s attacks and threats ground shipping to a halt.” The Strait, through which 20% of globally traded oil historically flowed, now sees only a handful of commercial vessels per day. The war that was supposed to end Iran’s nuclear capacity may conclude with an agreement about shipping lanes.
The goal of the migration is worth accounting for. Operation Epic Fury’s stated objectives included regime change, nuclear disarmament, and eliminating Iran’s capacity to project regional power. The current negotiating framework involves Iran agreeing to reopen the waterway in exchange for a cessation of US strikes. Iran’s nuclear program is not addressed. Its government remains in place. Its regional influence, diminished by six months of bombardment and an economy in freefall, the rial has weakened from 900,000 to the dollar in early 2025 to nearly 1.9 million, is the leverage that brought both sides to Oman. Not the original objectives.
Eighteen US service members are dead. The Senate has killed 13 War Powers resolutions. CENTCOM sent emails to outside analysts asking for new ideas on how to end it. Former Pentagon official Brent Sadler says more strikes are “likely” regardless of talks. The military is “locked and loaded,” per Hegseth. The deal, when it comes, will be about ships.
The war started over regime change and nuclear disarmament. The deal is about the strait.
When a war that started over regime change may end with a shipping lane agreement, what exactly changed while nobody was announcing it?
Sources
HuffPost: Live Updates — Trump says Iran deal imminent
HuffPost: Trump Says Deal To Reopen Strait Of Hormuz Could Come As Early As Wednesday
Raw Story: Trump hypes up planned Iran attack, then cancels it
